Official 141 NBA Thread

HighlanderZ

croshere 發表於 2013-4-13 20:50
火箭MOREY用統計學推算,對戰馬刺機會大少少喎

Haha, yes, he is one of the first guys in American sports to use statistics on winning probabilities; as well as assessing free agents' potentials.

Another guy who does that is John Hollinger, the Vice President of Basketball Operations for the Memphis Grizzlies. I think so far they are showing people it works.

croshere

HighlanderZ 發表於 2013-4-13 23:34
Kobe is done for this season for sure!

This type of injury takes anywhere from 6 months to a FULL ...

其實佢個職業生涯算KEEP得幾好架啦
都無咩SEASON END既大傷(雖然好多都係佢死頂)
希望佢未退休啦

croshere

HighlanderZ 發表於 2013-4-13 23:36
Haha, yes, he is one of the first guys in American sports to use statistics on winning probabiliti ...

Hollinger成日串火箭,我唔太鍾意佢
佢搞掂灰熊先啦

HighlanderZ

croshere 發表於 2013-4-13 23:48
其實佢個職業生涯算KEEP得幾好架啦
都無咩SEASON END既大傷(雖然好多都係佢死頂)
希望佢未退休啦 ...

Like I said, knowing his drive and personality, I am damn sure he WILL come back. Likely for the 2014-15 season, but seeing him back at around the all-star weekend is possible. After all, we still don't know the severity of his injury yet.

HighlanderZ

croshere 發表於 2013-4-13 23:50
Hollinger成日串火箭,我唔太鍾意佢
佢搞掂灰熊先啦

Believe it or not, the Grizzlies are probably my second fav team in the west after the Lakers. Despite the fact they traded away Rudy Gay this Feb., basketball-wise I think they are doing very well without Gay. Look, they were paying Gay $80M for 5 years, or superstar salary without the regular star-type of performance there. I actually didn't feel sad to see him got traded.

Z-Bo and Marc Gasol are the cornerstones for the Grizzlies, and hopefully Mike Conley and Ed Davis will also stick around and develop. I think aside from the Clippers, Thunder, Nuggets, the Grizzlies are the best up and coming team out west. The Rockets have some nice pieces, but I think you guys are still a player or two away from being considered great.

croshere

HighlanderZ 發表於 2013-4-13 23:56
Believe it or not, the Grizzlies are probably my second fav team in the west after the Lakers. Des ...

我對灰熊無咩感覺
純粹唔鍾意Hollinger啫

croshere

HighlanderZ 發表於 2013-4-13 23:53
Like I said, knowing his drive and personality, I am damn sure he WILL come back. Likely for the 2 ...

咁下年湖人可能星散架啦喎

ted.ted123

Kobe have chance retire, he is too tired

croshere

EL SEGUNDO, Calif. (AP) -- Kobe Bryant had surgery Saturday on his torn Achilles tendon, ending his season with two games left in the Los Angeles Lakers' playoff chase.

Lakers trainer Gary Vitti thinks Bryant will need six to nine months for recovery from the most serious injury of his 17-year NBA career. Given Bryant's history of swift recovery from countless minor injuries, Vitti and Lakers general manager Mitch Kupchak both believe the 34-year-old guard could be back for their season opener in the fall.

"I think that's a realistic goal for him, based on what he was talking about this morning," Kupchak said at the Lakers' training complex after visiting Bryant at the Kerlan-Jobe Orthopaedic Clinic.

要成6到9個月,都幾慘

HighlanderZ

croshere 發表於 2013-4-14 08:39
EL SEGUNDO, Calif. (AP) -- Kobe Bryant had surgery Saturday on his torn Achilles tendon, ending his ...

The recovery time of 6 to 9 months is already the best case scenario. We've seen players who suffered from the same injury took over a full year to return. Then again, knowing how Kobe is, he WILL return and he will not retire until he makes a return first... not especially when he is only 645 points away from over taking MJ to become the #3 scorer of All-time!

Kick Off

HighlanderZ 發表於 2013-4-14 20:54
The recovery time of 6 to 9 months is already the best case scenario. We've seen players who suffe ...

Sure Kobe can only come back in the new season and hope he can recover his best performance 100% after such serious injure

croshere

HighlanderZ 發表於 2013-4-13 23:53
Like I said, knowing his drive and personality, I am damn sure he WILL come back. Likely for the 2 ...

我都想未來仍然見到佢
希望佢早D康復啦

croshere

大陸網友對PLAYOFF排名既分析

西区季后赛排名形势：

第①-②名之争：目前，雷霆以59胜21负排名西区第一，马刺现在的战绩则是58胜22负。虽然两队在常规赛2-2战平，但是雷霆的西区战绩(38胜13负)已经确定好过马刺(33胜17负)，所以，雷霆只要再拿下一场比赛就可以锁定西区头名，他们最后两场比赛的对手分别是国王和雄鹿，均为雷霆主场比赛。马刺如果想升至西区第一，除了希望雷霆两场全败之外，他们得两战全胜才可以，马刺的最后两战对手分别是勇士(马刺客场比赛)和森林狼。

第③-⑤名之争：这一区间的争夺非常惨烈，掘金目前以55胜25负排名第三，快船54胜26负排名第四，灰熊54胜26负排名第五。稍有不慎，三队排名就将面目全非。掘金最后两战的对手是雄鹿(掘金客场比赛)和太阳；快船最后两战的对手是开拓者和国王(快船客场比赛)；灰熊最后两战对手分别是小牛(灰熊客场比赛)和爵士。因为快船已经锁定了太平洋赛区头名，而掘金和灰熊都不是各分区头名，所以，快船只要追上剩余两队中排名较高的球队战绩即可成为西区第三。

第⑥-⑧名之争：今天，火箭战胜国王，战绩变为45胜35胜，因为在常规赛中对阵勇士3胜1负，火箭暂时排名第六。勇士目前的战绩也是45胜35负，排名第七；在战胜马刺后，湖人目前的战绩为44胜37负。在常规赛还剩下一/两场比赛的情况下，三队都有可能杀到第六名。火箭接下来的两场比赛都是客场，分别对阵太阳和湖人；勇士的最后两场比赛则要对阵马刺和开拓者(勇士客场比赛)；湖人的最后一战对手是火箭。

给火箭勇士湖人三队支支招：

湖人如何才能冲到第六名：在常规赛对阵中，湖人对勇士战绩为3胜1负，对阵火箭战绩为1胜2负。如果勇士最后两场比赛全败、火箭也全败的话，湖人将凭借对阵优势(压过勇士)在西区战绩的优势(压过火箭)排名第六。这也是湖人杀到第六名的唯一可能。

火箭如何保住第六名：火箭已经把主动权握在了自己手中，因为在常规赛中对阵勇士有优势，所以，除了上面提到的那种极端情况，火箭只要跟上勇士的战绩即可保住第六名。这意味着，如果火箭拿下太阳的话，他们距离夺得西区第六名就只差一步之遥，只要勇士输一场就可以；但是，如果输给太阳的话，火箭就非常危险，第六名(勇士全败+火箭战胜湖人)、第七名(勇士全败+火箭输给湖人、勇士赢两场+火箭战胜湖人)和第八名(勇士赢一场+火箭输给湖人)都有可能。

勇士如何夺回第六名：因为在常规赛与湖人和火箭的对阵有处于劣势，所以，勇士接下来的两场比赛必须与火箭队赛跑，而且得希望火箭输掉至少一场比赛。如果勇士在剩下的比赛中输掉一场，他们唯一可能杀到第六的机会就是火箭两场全败；如果勇士两场全败，他们将彻底无缘第六名，如果火箭也两场全败，他们会被湖人火箭同时超越，排名第八。

另外，爵士队目前的战绩为42胜38负，他们唯一的季后赛可能是第八名，而且只有一种可能：自己全胜，且湖人输掉最后一场对阵火箭比赛。爵士队最后两战的对手是森林狼和灰熊，而且全是客场比赛。

西区明日比赛看点：

1、雷霆将在主场迎战国王，马刺将在客场对阵勇士。只要雷霆取胜，不管马刺战果如何，雷霆将锁定西区头名的位置，马刺也将锁定西区第二。如果出现其他情况，马刺还可以保留一线生机。

2、掘金将在客场挑战雄鹿，灰熊则在客场对阵小牛，掘金如果继续取胜的话，他们就将增加自己锁定西区第三的概率。

3、爵士将赶赴明尼苏达挑战森林狼，爵士队必须赢球才能保住一线生机。如果爵士输球的话，湖人就将锁定季后赛名额。

4、火箭将赴客场挑战太阳，勇士则在主场对阵马刺。

①火箭赢球+勇士赢球：火箭和勇士都将确定不会掉到第八名，至于第六名之争需要等到最后一天。

②火箭赢球+勇士输球：火箭将锁定西区第六名。

③火箭输球+勇士赢球：勇士将再次升至第六名，并且确定不会落到第八。火箭的排名则需要等到与湖人的最后一战才能确定。

④火箭输球+勇士输球：三队排名都要等到最后一天，这也是湖人可以升到第六的唯一可能。

HighlanderZ

I am surprised by Steve Blake in a good way in the first game without Kobe. He scored 23pts (only 2 short of tying his career high), and helped us beating the Spurs at home. Now it is like a one-game playoff for us. If we beat the Rockets (sorry croshere         c-hing), it doesn't matter what happen to the Jazz, the Lakers are in.

Sure, some people might say that, we are now without Kobe, so why bother making the playoffs? Two things:

1) We have ZERO first round draft pick for this year regardless.
2) We ain't expected to beat anyone even with Kobe healthy, now that we are without him I think the Lakers can just go out and play free, without worrying so much about the outcome.

croshere

HighlanderZ 發表於 2013-4-15 22:01
I am surprised by Steve Blake in a good way in the first game without Kobe. He scored 23pts (only 2  ...

無問題啦
只要聽日火箭贏太陽而勇士輸,火箭已經可以確定第六名

croshere

火箭GM MOREY更新左TWITTER
根據佢既數據分析,火箭PLAYOFF對手機會率如下:

croshere

火箭俾太陽收左皮
應該無第6位囉

HighlanderZ

croshere 發表於 2013-4-16 14:12
火箭俾太陽收左皮
應該無第6位囉

Yep, looks like you are very likely stuck with the #7 seed. For you to get the #6 spot, the Warriors must lose, and you must beat the Lakers in LA. Even without Kobe, it is not an easy task, especially the Lakers know full well that if they win, they are in the playoffs. I bet Howard and everyone would give it all they've got.

croshere

而家火箭局勢開始明朗

HighlanderZ

The playoffs schedule hasn't been released yet, but the #6 - #8 seeds out west are definitely NOT set. Here are the many scenarios:

With just two nights left of basketball before the playoff seedings are set, we laid out several scenarios that are yet to be determined for those eager to tune into the action. The two games on Tuesday (TOR at ATL and POR at LAC) can not affect L.A.'s seeding.

Here's a look at what's still in play during the final day of the regular season on Wednesday:

(1.) If Utah loses at Memphis, the Lakers would be locked into at least the No. 8 seed, even with a loss to Houston.

(2.) If the Lakers defeat Houston, they would pass the Rockets and move into the No. 7 seed.

(3.) If both the Lakers and Jazz win, the Lakers would be the No. 7 seed, the Rockets No. 8 and Utah out.

(4.) If Golden State wins at Portland, they are the No. 6 seed, which the Lakers cannot reach even if the Warriors lose (GSW are two up in the loss column with one to play).

(5.) If Golden State loses at Portland and Houston beats the Lakers, Houston is the No. 6 seed (they have the tiebreaker over GSW).

At the top of the standings, Oklahoma City clinched the No. 1 seed, and San Antonio the No. 2 on Monday night. The Lakers, Rockets are Jazz could face the Thunder, while the Lakers, Warriors or Rockets could face the Spurs. If Utah gets in, it will definitely be to face OKC.

Meanwhile, Denver has secured at least the No. 3 or No. 4 seed, and can lock up the No. 3 spot by beating Phoenix at home on Wednesday. The Clippers could get the No. 3 seed with a Denver loss and two wins (vs. Portland, at Sacramento), and would get at worst the No. 4 seed with a Denver win or at least one loss. Memphis is locked into the No. 5 seed, but can get home court over the Clippers with a win over Utah and at least one Clippers loss. Memphis can not catch Denver, however, since the Nuggets own the tiebreaker between the two and are a game up with one to play.