(轉載) 峻瀅呎價5313 將軍澳最平

yk8686

四川佬 發表於 2012-6-27 22:51
if you want my personal opinion - i think the property mkt will face a big meltdown in the next 5  ...

9吹係人刀識啦, 如果而家係泡沫(current bubble), 唔駛5年都跌得啦

全無論據齌up5年, 不如話夠20年啦, 經濟循環, 實有升跌架大C

我係股票圈既時候你都唔知讀撚完書未, 同我講SOROS

四川佬

yk8686 發表於 2012-6-28 02:26
9吹係人刀識啦, 如果而家係泡沫(current bubble), 唔駛5年都跌得啦

全無論據齌up5年, 不如話夠20年啦,  ...

"我係股票圈既時候你都唔知讀撚完書未, 同我講SOROS"

this i completely disagree.  ive been in the industry (im not just a retail investor, aka 散户) for years.  made my wealth, bought my ferraris, porsches, repulse bay real estate.  also fucked my share of LKF OLs and 141 hotel girls.

re bubble - the bubble is fueled by low rates and nothing else.  but low rates and money printing cannot replace hard work.  asset prices should be propped by good economy, high productivity and innovation.  in the absence of the above, it is a bubble.

but im not an expert in greek election, angela merkel's political agenda.  but i do know the FOMC well enough to know that QE3 is an unlikely event as long as Obama maintains a strong lead over Romney.  

yk8686

四川佬 發表於 2012-6-28 07:16
"我係股票圈既時候你都唔知讀撚完書未, 同我講SOROS"

this i completely disagree.  ive been in the in ...

照你對泡沫嘅形容，而家全球經濟都好差，咁何需5年先爆破暴跌呀?自打咀巴!

四川佬

yk8686 發表於 2012-6-28 13:26
照你對泡沫嘅形容，而家全球經濟都好差，咁何需5年先爆破暴跌呀?自打咀巴! ...

if youre so familiar with the finance world, you must have heard of the phrase -- "the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent".

the market can last up to 5yrs because credit is loose.  asset prices are supported only by lending.  i dont think even the sharpest hedge fund manager or prop trader can predict when bubbles pop.

but i can tell you that even though there isnt much thats going right in the global economy (ie europe on the brink of kicking out greece, the US growing slower than expected, china losing steam, japan continues to be in deflation mode, india entering stagflation - will become the next thailand), low rates is keeping things in tact.  

yk8686

四川佬 發表於 2012-6-28 20:40
if youre so familiar with the finance world, you must have heard of the phrase -- "the market can  ...

對啦，你都話大基金fund佬都難以預測泡沫幾時爆，你又叻到定得出個5年期嘅?

你講到咁本事，咁係呢5年間策略應該點? 乜都唔做等爆?

四川佬

yk8686 發表於 2012-6-28 23:14
對啦，你都話大基金fund佬都難以預測泡沫幾時爆，你又叻到定得出個5年期嘅?

你講到咁本事，咁係呢5年間 ...

buy assets that are USD/HKD based, assets that up in value and has liquidity when a crisis takes place. i-bonds is not a bad choice (although you'll laugh - but when hk 3yr treasury is at 0.3%, price at 105.5 and you're guaranteed 1% per year, that means 1 yr of 3.5% inflation you already break even).  shortdated bonds are okay.  SHK/Swire/Kerry/Wharf have some bonds outstanding at 4% due 2017-2010.

equity you can buy when liquidity dries up.  dont look at p/e or valuation.  earnings will drop starting next quarter.  look for a time when there is a panic sell 要钱不要货, then you buy.  i dont think the stock market has much upside.  20k max for the year, but can go to 17k, which means more downside than upside.

what makes you think i dont work for an investment bank or a large fund?    
5yr is a timeframe.  i dont know if it's happening in the first yr or the 5th year.  it is just a guess.  im not more right than any of those investment banks or hedge funds though.

if you want to leverage to the max and buy properties/stocks/properties, pls dont let me affect you.  but i have expressed my point of view.  if that makes you feel better, just take it as if you read it from a phony columnist on the newspaper (like 陆叔)  

yk8686

四川佬 發表於 2012-6-28 23:31
buy assets that are USD/HKD based, assets that up in value and has liquidity when a crisis takes p ...

好，你認真我又陪你認真D，但我用緊手機，唔同你打咁多字住。
你係唔係真係坐盤揸fit人，定只係最多係在呢行工作嘅畢業生，你越答越露底，一陣再講。

yk8686

四川佬 發表於 2012-6-28 23:31
buy assets that are USD/HKD based, assets that up in value and has liquidity when a crisis takes p ...

換返PC, 你講 IBOND, 每人派得3-4手, 點投資? 如果係市場吸納, 當你平到做價105 , 每年收息又派5%, 即係你3年回報15% 減去成本既5%(105買), 咁HOLD 3年賺得10%回報, 風險大膽D講係0, 即平均每年得3.3%回報, 你覺得真係荀嗎? 除非你買得100M貨, 3年賺返10M啦, 普通人買1M貨好嗎? 3年贏10萬咋

好啦, 講股票, 同意你話波幅係17000-20000間, 大跌叫買貨, C9都知, 但落場點買又係另一回事,
今日呢個位, 係應等17000先入市, 定係追沽至18000平倉? 期間有上有落, 坐定定等嗎? 反而你話長線係17000左右買黎保值下仲可以

yk8686

四川佬 發表於 2012-6-28 23:31
buy assets that are USD/HKD based, assets that up in value and has liquidity when a crisis takes p ...

再答你點解話你唔係做 IBANK或者大FUND, 你唔會同我講係間大行做個文員都當係吧

睇你寫野, 應該係有學識, 但你無左果份應有既自信, 一個揸FIT人既自信, 你每當講及經濟問題, 必引一堆名人, 名句, 証明左你讀過好多財經名人既書, 但係股壇內有一定成就既人(你話你住得起淺水灣, 有名車, 肯定唔係一鋪好彩啦), 必有一套自己對市場見解, 點會下下引用人地既說話黎加強說服力呢

你一開口就索羅斯, 可見你唔會係一個60-70後既人, 因為佢真正成名都係呢20年既事, 如果一個80後, 勉強70都尾既人能係近年市場大有斬穫, 必有其進取性, 點會對IBOND有興趣? 而如此保險既策略, 能容於IBANK呢行嗎?

你所講既5年策略如此保守, 我睇係讀得財經書多, 書中形容今日市況有當年美國大蕭條影子, 所以齊齊CASH IS KING, 買定花生等大跌, 我身邊都有咁既人!

呀吓

yk8686 發表於 2012-6-29 01:56
再答你點解話你唔係做 IBANK或者大FUND, 你唔會同我講係間大行做個文員都當係吧

睇你寫野, 應該係有學識 ...

我真係羨慕你地，我呢d粗人淨係識得扭鏍絲.....

而我不知索羅斯是誰....

entry1

呀吓 發表於 2012-6-29 02:26
我真係羨慕你地，我呢d粗人淨係識得扭鏍絲.....

而我不知索羅斯是誰....

你成日同D女女上鏍絲咋掛

呀吓

entry1 發表於 2012-6-29 02:45
你成日同D女女上鏍絲咋掛

係打樁！

entry1

呀吓 發表於 2012-6-29 02:50
係打樁！

打樁係被動WOR,

攻城又點睇? 呢排睇得3P多

四川佬

yk8686 發表於 2012-6-29 01:56
再答你點解話你唔係做 IBANK或者大FUND, 你唔會同我講係間大行做個文員都當係吧

睇你寫野, 應該係有學識 ...

honestly, im used to getting questioned like this from ALL investors.  i run a long vol strategy in a vol arb team.  9 of 12 months i run a small loss (premium paid out).  2 month i break even and 1 month in a year i make my pnL.  so, you can say that i capitalize on panic and liquidity crunches.  but as i said, you can treat me as a newspaper columnist who likes to be a contrarian for shock value

as to quoting soros, i was born in the 70s.  i look at all strategies and funds and comb thru the train of thoughts of many fund managers.  soros is one of them, buffet is another. if you want to explore this topic further, i'm happy to bring it offline.  

呀吓

煩惱 發表於 2012-6-29 11:25
我連扭鏍絲刀 5 色 ........

你識食鏍絲....

454

煩惱 發表於 2012-6-28 11:18
我欣賞你分析力 ... 但係我作為一個代理 ... 而 5 係分析家或預計家 ... 我係 5 會去估計佢跌到咩地步 .. ...

跌到 2K@ ...... D 人又話 仲未 跌完 la....

好似 #5 . hsbc .....當日 跌到 $3x...... 有几多個  狂掃貨..?
D人 咪 老吹  會 穿 $30.....

yk8686

四川佬 發表於 2012-6-29 07:42
honestly, im used to getting questioned like this from ALL investors.  i run a long vol strategy  ...

你真係精神可嘉

做對沖, 每年真係可能得一個月贏錢, 正因為咁, 一定係要找到一個target, 仲要係無咩人留意先贏得大錢去cover成年駛費, 好似人地搏冷馬咁啦, 如果一個唔夠自信既人點能擔此位置呢,

呢度地產版, 再講離題太遠, 你吹又好事實又好, 唔好洗版回覆就算啦

yk8686

煩惱 發表於 2012-6-29 15:22
仲卵住分割出黎移去投資區添 ....

切你JJ 移去成人區呀

佢唔洗版我咪唔追住佢黎玩囉

entry1

煩惱 發表於 2012-6-29 15:20
市場有好多人撈咗 ... 係你同我 5 知姐 ...

老散我卵真係唔會佔好多, 始終係心理, 過得到心理呢關就升LV唔係老散啦

entry1

煩惱 發表於 2012-6-29 15:43
老 5 老散係睇子彈有多少嘅 ....

唔係咁同意,

股唔同樓, 樓買左放係度唔理佢都唔會點屎, 特別係香港呢個地方,

股就分分鍾PK

開頭大把$$, 大戶咁入黎, 老散咁既技術, 心理, 唔駛幾耐清袋出返去做老散,

相反, 有本事有技術就老散都會變大戶