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My Simulated Stock Portfolio

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發表於 2013-12-19 02:18:01 | 顯示全部樓層
回復 FunDragon #120 的帖子

也許我有誤解或我是誤解  ,也沒有完全跟縱你的貼!最初發貼,全是一字“simulated”. 玩Paper Trade, 有本書叫什麼少年股神,就是有個學生 玩  Paper Trade competition 贏了。 之後寫書!


冇朋友
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「遊藝專家」勳章「攝影達人」勳章「創作大師」勳章萬千寵愛勳章傑出成就勳章超級元老勳章高級元老勳章論譠元老勳章

QQ
發表於 2013-12-19 10:19:19 | 顯示全部樓層
老餅好少回應你股市的帖, 事關一講股票, 升咗就話係Paper Trade, 跌咗一就覺得你無料, 吹水大王!
大部分人不願思考, 最好給一個明確, 無風險, 而又穩勝的方法.

股票是講「思考」與「值博率」的遊戲, 沒有一隻股票的必勝法, 但有長期至勝之道.
股票不是零和遊戲, 只要世界經濟有增長, 理論上市值也同時增長. 投資自然有回報.

我談股票的故事, 志在分享我的思考方法, 有人欣賞, 有人認為只是吹水.........其實別人是否相信不重要,  反正我自己信了, 也這樣下注了.
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高級元老勳章論譠元老勳章百萬富翁勳章超級元老勳章

發表於 2013-12-19 22:05:42 | 顯示全部樓層
回復 FunDragon #109 的帖子

Thanks for your reply, it is really tempting to subscribe.
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百萬富翁勳章論譠元老勳章高級元老勳章超級元老勳章萬千寵愛勳章「友誼大使」勳章究極元老勳章141榮譽勳章

發表於 2013-12-20 15:32:58 | 顯示全部樓層
值得參考!
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「創作大師」勳章「攝影達人」勳章

 樓主| 發表於 2013-12-22 03:36:26 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 FunDragon 於 2013-12-22 09:17 編輯
FunDragon 發表於 2013-12-18 22:09
Looks like the Year end rally is taking into shape

If the news out of Washington tomorrow cooperat ...


well, the news out of Washington WAS VERY GOOD,

With the US markets REACHING ALL TIME HIGHS LAST WEEK.

But as we know, stock markets are very unpredictable, the Hong Kong and China indexes have gone the other direction the last few days because the tightening of Money Flow.

TODAY     恆生指數 22,812 Dn 76.57 lost of 0.33%      
Our Portfolio   Dn 9,921  / Lost of 0.801%

Because many stocks in our portfolio is so much capital intensive, the money tightening effect will have a higher impact on those stocks, thus the underperformance against the HSI index, going down at twice the rate.

But there are still a few winners for today, cushioning the fall a little. AGAIN these are just one day movements.
2013-12-20 Closing up list.jpg


20/Dec/2013 Closing prices

組合總市值(20/12) HKD1,229,142  今日利潤升跌(港元)  $-9,921 / +0.801%
組合總成本(26/08) HKD900,951   組合總利潤(港元) $+328,191 / +36.427%

Benchmark Compare  
HSI (26/08 open) 21943 , HSI (20/12 close) 22812 = 總利潤 +869 / +3.960%

2013-12-20 Closing.jpg


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 樓主| 發表於 2013-12-22 04:04:14 | 顯示全部樓層
FunDragon 發表於 2013-12-13 16:48
To replace the two stocks that we cut loses on

Here is one that we will be buying to replace on M ...

This will be the STOCK that we will be adding to our portfolio Monday Morning at the open.
Fridays closing price was 1.91 , we will buying 26000 shares equal to around HKD$50,000.

INDI STOCK Chart 852.jpg

6 month Daily Chart looks very strong.

INDI STOCK Chart 852 02.jpg

Analysis of Strong Petrochemical Holdings as of 12/20/2013

Business: Strong Petrochemical Holdings, (0852.HK) Strong Petrochemical Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in trading crude oil, and petroleum and petrochemical products in Hong Kong, Macao, and the People’s Republic of China. It is also developing storage facilities in the People’s Republic of China through its investment in the Nantong Project and the Tianjin Project. In addition, the company provides petroleum and petrochemical products storage services. Strong Petrochemical Holdings Limited sells its crude oil and petroleum products to state-owned licensed import agents. The company was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Admiralty, Hong Kong. Strong Petrochemical Holdings Limited operates as a subsidiary of Forever Winner International Limited.
Business Sector: 0852.HK has been assigned to the Energy Business Sector.
Industry Group: 0852.HK has been assigned to the Energy (Energy) Industry Group.

Capital Appreciation Analysis

Value: Value is a measure of a stock's current worth.  0852.HK has a current Value of $2.25 per share. Therefore, it is undervalued compared to its Price of $1.91 per share.  Value is computed from forecasted earnings per share, forecasted earnings growth, profitability, interest, and inflation rates. Value increases when earnings, earnings growth rate and profitability increase, and when interest and inflation rates decrease.

RV (Relative Value): RV is an indicator of long-term price appreciation potential. 0852.HK has an RV rating of 1.66, which is excellent on a scale of 0.00 to 2.00. This indicator is far superior to a simple comparison of Price and Value because it is computed from an analysis of projected price appreciation three years out, AAA Corporate Bond Rates, and risk. RV solves the riddle of whether it is preferable to buy High growth, High P/E stocks, or Low growth, Low P/E stocks.

RS (Relative Safety): RS is an indicator of risk. 0852.HK has an RS rating of 1.21, which is good on a scale of 0.00 to 2.00. RS is computed from an analysis of the consistency and predictability of a company's financial performance, debt to equity ratio, sales volume, business longevity, price volatility and other factors. A stock with an RS rating greater than 1.00 is safer and more predictable than the average stock .

RT (Relative Timing): RT is a fast, smart, accurate indicator of a stock's price trend. 0852.HK has a Relative Timing rating of 1.93, which is excellent on a scale of 0.00 to 2.00.  RT is computed from an analysis of the direction, magnitude, and dynamics of a stock's price movements over one day, one week, one quarter and one year time periods. Once a stock's price has established a strong trend, it is expected to continue in that trend for the short-term. If a trend dissipates, RT will gravitate toward 1.00. RT will explode from bottoms, dive from tops, and reflect changes in price momentum.

VST (VST-Vector):  VST is the master indicator for ranking every stock in the VectorVest database. 0852.HK has a VST rating of 1.64, which is excellent on a scale of 0.00 to 2.00. VST is computed from the square root of a weighted sum of the squares of RV, RS, and RT. Stocks with the highest VST ratings have the best combinations of Value, Safety and Timing. These are the stocks to own for above average, long-term capital appreciation.

WARNING :
資料只供參考之用,投資涉及風險, 股票價格可升可跌,
在投資時,應詳細參閱股份年報、招股書及其他報告內之詳情,

並請運用個人獨立思考能力自行作出投資決定。

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 樓主| 發表於 2013-12-22 04:16:56 | 顯示全部樓層
oldcake 發表於 2013-12-19 10:19
老餅好少回應你股市的帖, 事關一講股票, 升咗就話係Paper Trade, 跌咗一就覺得你無料, 吹水大王!
大部分人 ...

One of the most important part of my Hong Kong trips
is to listen to 你談股票的故事 !!!



其實別人是否相信不重要,  反正我自己信了, 也這樣下注了.

也這樣可以升級我的相機了.
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發表於 2013-12-22 20:42:00 | 顯示全部樓層
FunDragon 發表於 2013-12-22 04:16
One of the most important part of my Hong Kong trips
is to listen to 你談股票的故事 !!!

我唔識投資,每次升級相機都好辛苦
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發表於 2013-12-23 21:00:06 | 顯示全部樓層
can c hing share the method you select stocks over thousand of choices?
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「創作大師」勳章「攝影達人」勳章

 樓主| 發表於 2013-12-23 23:39:48 | 顯示全部樓層
One Picture is better than many words.

Congratulations to all who have this in their portfolio.

Merry Christmas !!!

Daily Chart of 23/12/2013

1180.jpg

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 樓主| 發表於 2013-12-23 23:44:01 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 FunDragon 於 2013-12-23 23:51 編輯
carvhk 發表於 2013-12-23 21:00
can c hing share the method you select stocks over thousand of choices?


we use many different tools to select our stocks,

mainly

www.AASTOCK.com , www.vectorvest.com , www.quamnet.com

and most important, follow closely

http://www.hkex.com.hk/chi/index_c.htm

GOOD LUCK

Merry Christmas !!!

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發表於 2013-12-26 19:53:48 | 顯示全部樓層
FunDragon 發表於 2013-12-22 04:04
This will be the STOCK that we will be adding to our portfolio Monday Morning at the open.
Fridays ...

how you calculate the "Value"?

Any more tips now?
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「遊藝專家」勳章「攝影達人」勳章「創作大師」勳章萬千寵愛勳章傑出成就勳章超級元老勳章高級元老勳章論譠元老勳章

QQ
發表於 2013-12-26 23:06:46 | 顯示全部樓層
FunDragon 發表於 2013-12-22 04:16
One of the most important part of my Hong Kong trips
is to listen to 你談股票的故事 !!!

我d吹水故事,大部分人「聽咗唔明;明咗唔信;信咗唔買!」我都見怪不怪了!
所以我一直都話你呢個少餅,雖然年紀輕輕,但係膽色過人...........連我d亂作既故事都敢聽!
仲有冇703呀,琴人又破頂了!
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「遊藝專家」勳章「攝影達人」勳章「創作大師」勳章萬千寵愛勳章傑出成就勳章超級元老勳章高級元老勳章論譠元老勳章

QQ
發表於 2013-12-26 23:11:03 | 顯示全部樓層
robert69 發表於 2013-12-26 19:53
how you calculate the "Value"?

Any more tips now?

老餅比芬龍少餅引咗黎講幾句,好啦,就順手答你兩句。
唔洗問,先想想老餅金句:聽咗唔明;明咗唔信;信咗唔買!

其實我們聽到的tips很多,最難是選擇相信那些!
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 樓主| 發表於 2013-12-27 02:01:46 | 顯示全部樓層
oldcake 發表於 2013-12-26 23:11
老餅比芬龍少餅引咗黎講幾句,好啦,就順手答你兩句。
唔洗問,先想想老餅金句:聽咗唔明;明咗唔信;信咗唔買!

你必須明白,

大多數人,當他們請教意見,
他們只欲得到確認。

倘若該建議是對他們所認為的答案對面的,
就很難為所接受和做到了。

金句 :
意見接受, 行動照舊 !!!

BTW: I am riding 703 for my next China trip expenses...... looks like won't be too long a wait :-D
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發表於 2013-12-27 02:43:29 | 顯示全部樓層
oldcake 發表於 2013-12-26 23:06
我d吹水故事,大部分人「聽咗唔明;明咗唔信;信咗唔買!」我都見怪不怪了!
所以我一直都話你呢個少餅, ...

buy  8071 lar!
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發表於 2013-12-27 02:44:21 | 顯示全部樓層
FunDragon 發表於 2013-12-27 02:01
你必須明白,

大多數人,當他們請教意見,

Still how you calculate the "Value"?
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 樓主| 發表於 2013-12-27 02:53:38 | 顯示全部樓層
robert69 發表於 2013-12-26 19:53
how you calculate the "Value"?

Any more tips now?

Value is a measure of a stock's current worth.   
Value is computed from forecasted earnings per share, forecasted earnings growth, profitability, interest, and inflation rates.
Value increases when earnings, earnings growth rate and profitability increase, and when interest and inflation rates decrease.
We preferred ( Along other Indictors)  the purchase of undervalued stocks. At some point in time, a stock's Price and Value always will converge.  
   
BUT, the more important in our research of  current buy list stocks is the indictor of  RV (Relative Value):

RV (Relative Value): RV
RV is an indicator of long-term price appreciation potential. This indicator is far superior to a simple comparison of Price and Value because it is computed from an analysis of projected price appreciation three years out, AAA Corporate Bond Rates, and risk.
RV solves the riddle of whether it is preferable to buy High growth, High P/E stocks, or Low growth, Low P/E stocks.
We preferred ( Along other Indictors)  the purchase of stocks with RV ratings above 1.00.

Just as an example, our most recent addition to the Hong Kong/China portfolio is Strong Petrochemical Holdings 0852.HK

According to the Analysis of Strong Petrochemical Holdings as of 12/24/2013

0852.HK has a current Value of $2.32 per share. Therefore, it is undervalued compared to its Price of $1.88 per share.
0852.HK has an RV of 1.66, which is excellent on a scale of 0.00 to 2.00.

資料只供參考之用,投資涉及風險, 股票價格可升可跌,
在投資時,應詳細參閱股份年報、招股書及其他報告內之詳情,
並請運用個人獨立思考能力自行作出投資決定。


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發表於 2013-12-27 03:01:36 | 顯示全部樓層
FunDragon 發表於 2013-12-27 02:53
Value is a measure of a stock's current worth.   
Value is computed from forecasted earnings per s ...

can you show me all the steps how you come up $2.32 for 852? and RV 1.66?
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 樓主| 發表於 2013-12-27 03:19:35 | 顯示全部樓層
robert69 發表於 2013-12-27 03:01
can you show me all the steps how you come up $2.32 for 852? and RV 1.66?

Sorry,
Because the quantitive research we subscribe to and their software are properitory. and not able to share in public forums like this. We can not share that information.

But if you find that kind of information makes sense and may be able to help you,
The service we use as our main research along with others is at www.vectorvest.com , they do have a low cost trial period if you want to give it a try.

Good Luck
Merry Christmas and Happy New Year

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