My Simulated Stock Portfolio

FunDragon

$1,000,000 HKD Total Investment
20 Stocks @ 50,000  @ equal weighting.
Start before the market opening on 26/08/2013

Let us do this in more detail.
Let us make the opening balance of this portfolio as $1,100,000.00
total investment for 20 stocks = HKD1,001,332
transaction cost per rate of 0.25% = HKD2,503.33
so cost of portfolio is HKD1,003,835
Cash portion of portfolio will be HKD96,165.00

FunDragon

26-08-2013 Closing

FunDragon

27-08-2013 Closing

waiking

兩日賺咗二萬幾

cmchan23

回復 FunDragon #3 的帖子

好揾過開架步

BECKHAM2

FunDragon 發表於 2013-8-27 16:04
$1,000,000 HKD Total Investment
20 Stocks @ 50,000
Start before the market opening on 26/08/2013

高風險組合...... 唔啱我D望退休嘅貧窮人士

張家輝

FunDragon 發表於 2013-8-27 16:10
27-08-2013 Closing

都幾驚咕喎~

netmanhk2006

有冇計埋一買一賣既洗費. 實賺幾多呀

lugard

我有隻3336

Narhhy

no $

FunDragon

BECKHAM2 發表於 2013-8-27 17:17
高風險組合...... 唔啱我D望退休嘅貧窮人士

On the surface, and because the movement of the last two days.

This portfolio may look like a very high risk and high reward portfolio. But if you look deeper into each stock individually, the P/E and relative value of the portfolio as a whole is not the case.

My selection  is computed from the square root of a weighted sum of the calculation of  
Price compare to Value,
Relative Strength of each,
and Relative Timing of each stock against the market in general.

Each Stocks will be assign a relative rating that have the best combinations of Value, Safety and Timing.
These are the stocks to own for above average, long-term capital appreciation. Thru the purchase of safe, undervalued stocks rising in price.

假波男

唔識玩

FunDragon

netmanhk2006 發表於 2013-8-27 22:33
有冇計埋一買一賣既洗費. 實賺幾多呀

Good Idea,

let me figure that into the starting portfolio
for better tracking  and actual results calculation.

Profits are only on paper until we close the position.

BECKHAM2

FunDragon 發表於 2013-8-28 00:06
On the surface, and because the movement of the last two days.

This portfolio may look like a ve ...

How to calculate?
what is Relative Timing? and how to get the Value of a stock?

Is the formula work? I mean proven?

FunDragon

BECKHAM2 發表於 2013-8-28 01:57
How to calculate?
what is Relative Timing? and how to get the Value of a stock?

Whether a formula works or not is a never ending debate because so much variable affect the final result.
(find me any formula, I bet you I can find one stock that will prove that it worked as easily find another stock that says it fail.)  

Whether a formula has been proven is also a never ending experiment and agruement.
( This thread would be good to find out if my model will work with this virtual portfolio and see any adjustments is needed. Let's give it a few months because this is not intended to be a short term gambling type of portfolio)

There may be many supposedly proven formula in the investment advise world that may take you to the riches as well as take you to the poor house depending how you apply it.  One example is the Dow Theory principle; I have seen many who profit from it greatly as well as many who lost their shirts following it. As each interpretation may have different result in different periods of markets.

As for my selections, there is a proprietary model that I used to calculate each variable independently.

For a stock to be on my buy or hold list , 3 indictors must be in positive area. Relative Value, Relative Safety, Relative Timing, Plus an allocation between cash/equity relative to the overall market condition as we interpret it.

Let me briefly introduce each variable as simple as I can, we will use  (0200.HK) Melco International Development as example of how we apply each, we will use the price of 0200.HK as of 27/08/2013.

Value: Value is a measure of a stock's current worth. for example 0200.HK has a current Value of $22.42 per share. Therefore, it is undervalued compared to its Price of $17.82 per share as of 27-08-2013.  Value is computed from forecasted earnings per share, forecasted earnings growth, profitability, interest, and inflation rates. Value increases when earnings, earnings growth rate and profitability increase, and when interest and inflation rates decrease. We advocate the purchase of undervalued stocks. At some point in time, a stock's Price and Value always will converge.  
RV (Relative Value): RV is an indicator of long-term price appreciation potential. At this moment our calculation indicates 0200.HK has an RV of 1.61, which is excellent on a scale of 0.00 to 2.00. This indicator is far superior to a simple comparison of Price and Value because it is computed from an analysis of projected price appreciation three years out, AAA Corporate Bond Rates, and risk. RV solves the riddle of whether it is preferable to buy High growth, High P/E stocks, or Low growth, Low P/E stocks. We strongly favor the purchase of stocks with RV ratings above 1.00.

RS (Relative Safety): RS is an indicator of risk. At this moment 0200.HK has an calculated RS rating of 1.46, which is excellent on a scale of 0.00 to 2.00. RS is computed from an analysis of the consistency and predictability of a company's financial performance, debt to equity ratio, sales volume, business longevity, price volatility and other factors. A stock with an RS rating greater than 1.00 is safer and more predictable than the average stock in our database. We favor the purchase of stocks of companies with consistent, predictable financial performance.

RT (Relative Timing): RT is a fast, smart, accurate indicator of a stock's price trend. At this calculation 0200.HK has a Relative Timing rating of 1.65, which is excellent on a scale of 0.00 to 2.00.  RT is computed from an analysis of the direction, magnitude, and dynamics of a stock's price movements over one day, one week, one quarter and one year time periods. Once a stock's price has established a strong trend, it is expected to continue in that trend for the short-term. If a trend dissipates, RT will gravitate toward 1.00. RT will explode from bottoms, dive from tops, and reflect changes in price momentum. We strongly favor the purchase of stocks with RT ratings above 1.00.

Finally, we take into account of all above indicators. Adding into the mix, our current Marco Market timing indicators. With those in place we add the selected stocks into each of our allocated Equity portions of the total investment portfolio.

fb3cb2

FunDragon 發表於 2013-8-27 16:04
$1,000,000 HKD Total Investment
20 Stocks @ 50,000  @ equal weighting.
Start before the market openi ...

唔多識玩

netmanhk2006

FunDragon 發表於 2013-8-28 04:01
Whether a formula works or not is a never ending debate because so much variable affect the final  ...

It is good to hear some of the professional advise for new investor. Would u tell me where is the web site to show those of the indicator, like RV, RT and RS. Thx

FunDragon

netmanhk2006 發表於 2013-8-28 21:56
It is good to hear some of the professional advise for new investor. Would u tell me where is the  ...

For investors interested in Technical indicators,

here is one web site I use very often for research,
they do a very good job in screening the market for stocks that falls into those each day.

http://www.aastocks.com/EN/LTP/RTAI.aspx?symbol=00001

Here are the most popular BULL indicators.

GOLDEN CROSS


HEAD & SHOULDER


CUP with HANDLE


TRIPLE BOTTOM


RANGE BREAK-OUT


GOOD LUCK

FunDragon

Well easy come, easy go

it is days like today that you are glad that you are well diversified.

Having all your eggs in one basket and that basket breaks is not a good feeling.

Considering what the market has been doing the last few days, we are still in a good position. It is still early to consider move to the cash side at this stage until a more solid downtrend has been established. Our quality stock holdings will be the first to turn around when the market start the uptreand again.

With today's moves, most of our paper profits has been eliminated,
with the best performance from 1180 up a solid 23% from Monday open.
the worst comes from 869 down a dismal 12%

FunDragon

Back at work again

Today Lunch Break HOT Trifecta

KINGSOFT 03888.HK 16.580 +0.940 +6.010%
CHINASOUTHCITY 1668.HK 2.050 +0.080 +4.061%
CH ENV ENERGY 00986.HK 1.410 +0.030 +2.174%

金山(03888.HK)整固後回升6%再破頂 半年多賺71% 2013-08-29 10:52:15
金山軟件(03888.HK)繼昨天藉中績理想先行獲利回軟後，今早股價再創歷史新高，最高見16.68元，現造16.56元，升6%，成交已達1919萬股，接近昨天全日。
金山中期純利純利按年升71%至3.41億人民幣(下同)，每股盈利29.67分。期內，總收入及毛利分別升55%及52%，毛利率按年升2個百分點至87%。公司展望下半年《劍網3》及《反恐行動》遊戲將持續增長。管理層又解釋，維持過往不派中期息保守政策，主要是希望保留資金作長遠發展。此外，冀望可與小米及次股東騰訊(00700.HK)合作

Looking GOOD...