看住人民幣喺咁升，可以點做？

halohalohalohal

halohalohalohal 發表於 2013-5-27 15:34
ching, i think we are talking about the same thing...
for stock index futures, the discount comes  ...

簡而言之,RMB forwards 的discount未必來自投資者expect RMB跌,而係因為forwards 比起存款無得收息,所以當計埋呢d息差,個價就出現discount。

halohalohalohal

回應 nights88 #40 的帖子

ching, u miss up premium and discount.
when we said rmb discount, it means that the forwards compare to current value is like 貶值。
in your example: current 6.135 rmb = 1USD, Dec: 6.195 rmb = 1USD. so it looks like RMB will 貶值. this is discount.
Same as my example above, i claim that 投資者未必真係expect RMB貶值,而係因為息差

halohalohalohal

halohalohalohal 發表於 2013-5-27 16:15
回應 nights88 #40 的帖子

ching, u miss up premium and discount.

typo should be "mix up"

nights88

halohalohalohal 發表於 2013-5-27 16:15
回應 nights88 #40 的帖子

ching, u miss up premium and discount.

我意思喺，如果有息差（多過宜家預期的利息差）都應該喺人民幣升值先對，因為人民幣利率高過美元。
所以dec 應該喺 少過current 1USD = 6.135 人民幣。
因為投資者預期人民幣會派高d利息，所以美元應該相對貶值先對。

coex

i think all that relies on the fact that interest rate parity holds for your equation? in any case the fact that the CNY has a closed capital account at the moment means that it wont have large fluctuation as everything is government regulated

halohalohalohal

coex 發表於 2013-5-27 16:22
i think all that relies on the fact that interest rate parity holds for your equation? in any case t ...

a bit different. int rate parity is for FX rate change. cash and carry is for futures/forward price calculation.

halohalohalohal

halohalohalohal 發表於 2013-5-27 16:26
a bit different. int rate parity is for FX rate change. cash and carry is for futures/forward pric ...

i think int rate parity is too academic, otherwise there won't exist thousands of billions of FX carry trade

halohalohalohal

nights88 發表於 2013-5-27 16:21
我意思喺，如果有息差（多過宜家預期的利息差）都應該喺人民幣升值先對，因為人民幣利率高過美元。
所以d ...

我不知道有没有"多過宜家預期的利息差",
但"現存"的利息差(RMB息較高),會做成forwards價好像RMB要貶值,其實未必。
可能是我解釋得不好,還是上網goog cash and carry 吧

graffiti

halohalohalohal 發表於 2013-5-24 15:19
回應 nights88 #27 的帖子

ic, haha

you are so honest，hahaha

tingkwok

回應 pkhang #20 的帖子

坐定定，眼定定

liuxiang2013

人民幣升值點高都唔夠物價升得快，不如想想有無其它更高收益嘅投資啦
！仁兄言之有理啊！

Bigcar

gcsy 發表於 2013-5-6 23:12
全世界都印錢,美元又有機會強返D,人仔可能升勢可能會放援小小.

賣矖啲金，轉買人仔都未遅。

ncsian

回應 nights88 #1 的帖子

Remimbi sure increase its value in years to come

kanwing

唔好返大陸玩

intime

taihung28 發表於 2013-5-18 22:12
個人意見就是有人民的話就換哂港元, 冇的話就買等下啦, 美元會升所以港元同樣會升...等下啦.. ...

前2天換人仔電匯上大6, 俾得 7915   

essomobil999

回應 pkhang #20 的帖子

Buy CNY
two years ago 1.2
one year ago 1.22
now 1.27
future 1.3 more more more la

samsai

入其他貨幣仲好啦..

sonofthetime

cny 玩future 好像一張金額太大了, 有無細d 可以做?

yhkko

回應 nights88 #1 的帖子

Buy Mainland property for long term investment.