看住人民幣喺咁升，可以點做？

pk001a36

我做緊定期

halohalohalohal

nights88 發表於 2013-5-5 16:04
最近人民幣升值加快！又話抗寬波幅，又話國際化！
報紙日日賣，唱好！！好多散戶都知！我都知啦！2013年1月 ...

those contracts have included the "expected rise" of RMB. so you can't benefit from the "normal rise" of RMB la. it's kind of gambling indeed, not like RMB deposite

nights88

halohalohalohal 發表於 2013-5-24 11:45
those contracts have included the "expected rise" of RMB. so you can't benefit from the "normal ri ...

其實喺"expected drop"就真，你看2013年12月人民幣contract比現在的6月contract有discount ga.

pk001a36

但好多人expect rise嘛-_-

halohalohalohal

回應 nights88 #24 的帖子

i dont trade those products, so dont know their value la. I just want to emphasize that those products are risky. dun play it unless you think you are very familiar with it

nights88

我并不是說這個工具沒有風險，所有投資工具都有輸錢的可能。只是想分享俾大家知，有個咁樣嘅人民幣投資期貨工具。

halohalohalohal

and I think it's still "expected rise". the discount comes from interest rate difference.
i.e. people expect rise is smaller than the interest rate difference.
for detail, u can wiki "cash and carry"

halohalohalohal

回應 nights88 #27 的帖子

ic, haha
honestly i just want to increase my 權限 in the forum..so randomly reply something hahahaha

nights88

回應 halohalohalohal #28 的帖子

future contracts unlike option contracts, there is no interest rate value presents inside future contract.

Dennischan85

做人仔定期好D....期貨唔識玩, 同有風險

jasonwu神

買左d必需既野先
eg +c , tv , computer ......

宝石蓝

有餘錢咪做d人民幣定存囉！

kht

those who rely on bank interest is all toasted.

一夜少

人民幣定存的利息就很嚇人喽

halohalohalohal

nights88 發表於 2013-5-24 15:30
回應 halohalohalohal #28 的帖子

future contracts unlike option contracts, there is no interest rate ...

sorry, not sure what do you mean by "present in the contract".
but int rate will be taken into a/c when pricing futures/forwards/options :)
this is the fundamental of cash and carry

nights88

halohalohalohal 發表於 2013-5-27 11:26
sorry, not sure what do you mean by "present in the contract".
but int rate will be taken into a/c ...

e.g.
Current HSI = 22700
HSI future @ May contract =  22680 (discount 20 pts due to short term investor mood)
HSI future @ Sep contract = 22400 (discount 300 pts due to interest payout)
HSI future @ Dec contract = 22200 (discount 500 pts due to interest payout)...

Current CUH (人民幣 電匯價） = 6.135
CUH future @ June contract = 6.138 (離岸contract)
CUH future @ Sep contract = 6.174 (離岸contract)
CUH future @ Dec contract = 6.195 (離岸 contract)

以上全部現價....

Ching, 你看到future contract對于interest payout的影響嗎？
一般 future contract 都不會有內在interest, 因為future contract 只有到期結算，所以interest會一早在future 價反映。

coex

best if you just buy RMB fixed deposit so you can collect interest payments... but if your investment is less than 10k HKD... i dont see the point because transaction fees will likely eat up your investment returns anyway

halohalohalohal

nights88 發表於 2013-5-27 12:50
e.g.
Current HSI = 22700
HSI future @ May contract =  22680 (discount 20 pts due to short term in ...

ching, i think we are talking about the same thing...
for stock index futures, the discount comes from dvd payout(which is more significant for hsi futures) + interest rate, etc
for rmbhkd forwards, the discount comes interest rate difference, etc.
Let me give you an extreme example: "imagine" the interest rate now is crazily high at 100% per year, all other factors keep unchanged. Do you think the Sep contract will still discount 300pts?
you see the pricing will change if int rate change, so I said above that "int rate will be taken into a/c bla bla bla"
and this is what the cash and carry formula is about :)

nights88

halohalohalohal 發表於 2013-5-27 15:34
ching, i think we are talking about the same thing...
for stock index futures, the discount comes  ...

ching, as i stated the current price above, there is no discount for USD/CNY, but a premium....
do you think USD will increase int rate that is higher than CNY by this Dec?
CUH is USD to CNY, so, if there is a int factor in the future contract, then the current dec contract should be priced at 6.07 as USD is lower interest to CNY, as time goes, the USD should be equal to less CNY...

halohalohalohal

halohalohalohal 發表於 2013-5-27 15:34
ching, i think we are talking about the same thing...
for stock index futures, the discount comes  ...

簡而言之,RMB forwards 的discount未必來自投資者expect RMB跌,而係因為forwards 比起存款無得收息,所以當計埋呢d息差,個價就出現discount。