the likely sequence is:
9 or/and +2 or/and +5 and/or +7 --> cannot work or too sad to work --> 8 --> 1 (no work -> no money)
--> 4 (likely to happen because no money to support family) --> 6 (because of AIDS or drug overdose?)
I agree that 3 is not the cause of play unless 3 causes "too sad to work".